Stats that Actually Matter

Just a heads-up from the beginning, this post is going to be completely related to baseball and softball. So, if you have no interest in those sports then there probably won't be much that is relevant to you in this one. However, if you want to coach or play winning baseball or softball, then give this a read. In fact, when you're done reading you might even feel challenged to rearrange your approach and mindset toward offense in the game of baseball and softball, or at least reconsider what it takes to put together a winning offense.

If someone wants to know how a player is performing at the plate, what is the most common question asked? "What is your Batting Average?" For over 100 years, Batting Average has been the go-to statistic for determining how good a hitter is. While I certainly would never recommend tossing the Batting Average stat aside completely, you are going to hear me advocate that there are much better stats that can authenticate whether a player is truly helping his team succeed offensively.

Batting Average is one of the simplest stats to figure up. Just divide the number of hits a player gets by the number of official at-bats, and you get a percentage. That percentage shows you how frequently a player gets base hits. You would think a Batting Average stat would be a measure at how skilled a player is at hitting the baseball, but unfortunately that is not always true. Of course, a player does have some control over his Batting Average, but a lot of it is out of his hands and really does not accurately describe how well a player hits the ball. Nor does it provide an accurate characterization of how well a player helps his team offensively. This is the biggest factor and most vital point for me.

Let me give two hypothetical scenarios and then ask a question. Though these are "hypothetical," they are very real in the games of baseball and softball and actually occur quite frequently.

PLAYER #1: Goes 0-for-2 on the day offensively. He had 4 plate appearances, but in his first at-bat he got walked. He was the first batter in the inning and ended up scoring a run later in that inning. In his second at-bat he hit a frozen-rope and lined out to the centerfielder who made a great play going toward the gap. In his third at-bat he hit a 2-2 pitch in the air to the warning track in deep left field for an out, but earned a sacrifice and RBI when the runner tagged up from 3B and scored. In his fourth at-bat he took the count to 3-2 and then fouled off two more balls before lining out to the shortstop. Player #1's Batting Average on the day: .000.

PLAYER #2: Goes 3-4 on the day offensively. In his first at-bat he hit a "swinging bunt" when he was fooled on a changeup and barely made contact on the end of the bat. However, the ball rolled slowly into no-man's land between the pitcher, second-baseman and first-baseman and he beat out the play for a base hit. In his second at-bat he hits a fly ball to shallow center field with runners at first and second base. In his third at-bat he hit a "ground ball with eyes" single in the 5.5 hole between shortstop and third base. In his fourth at-bat, there were two outs with a runner on second base and he hit a lazy duck-fart pop-up that barely made it over the first baseman's head. The run scored and the at-bat is, of course, ruled a base hit. Player #2's Batting Average on the day: .750.

Now, let me ask you a question. Which player feels better about his day at the plate? Traditionally, it's the one who got 3 hits. Sure, they were "lucky" hits, but he gets his name in the paper for going 3-for-4, and his cumulative Batting Average has raised significantly, and he is probably going to be considered the better hitter when the coach is making out the lineup for the next game.

Next question. Which player ACTUALLY had the better day at the plate? According to how they helped the team score runs and win the game, they were equal in that respect. Both had an RBI. But without question, PLAYER #1, who hit three balls hard and square plus got on base by BB and scored, that player SHOULD feel better about his day. But I guarantee you at least 90% of players who go 0-2 on the day are not feeling good about their day, while players who go 3-4 on the day but never hit a ball solid, still feel pretty good about their day.

Why? Because of the illusion of the Batting Average statistic. It can make us feel better than we should feel on some days, and it can make us feel worse than we should feel on other days. It is a stat that does not accurately paint the picture of how well a player is truly producing offense for his or her team.

The truth is, a player can have a lower batting average than another player on your team but be a substantially more productive player. For example, one player could be a singles hitter who walks infrequently while the other doesn't get as many singles but tends to get on base by walking a lot and then hits more doubles that drive in runs (RBIs) as well as scores runs himself by finding ways to get on base and get around those bases. The one player could have as much as 200 points higher in Batting Average by hitting all those singles, while the other player is actually being more productive in helping the team win even though his Batting Average is 200 points lower.

This is precisely why four years ago I stopped trusting in Batting Average when making out lineups. Instead, I started measuring and paying attention to "quality" at-bats, and particularly a couple different stats that more accurately measure how productive a player is being offensively.

Before I say what those are, let's back up for a minute and ask ourselves a few very important questions. These will seem obvious, but we must ask them anyway.

1. Do we want to win the game? I am assuming we all will answer, "YES, of course!" Okay, then...

2. If winning the game is important to us, then what must our offense do in order to help us win the game? I am assuming we will all answer, "SCORE RUNS." Okay, then...

3. In order to score runs, what must be the goal for each at-bat? You see, this is where answers may differ. Some will say, "To get base hits." While that would be a nice, it isn't absolutely necessary to get base hits in order to score runs. So the at-bat goal could actually be something simpler and more within our power to control, such as "GET ON BASE." Sometimes, the at-bat goal is to advance a runner that is already on base, and/or drive in the runner that is already on base (by any means necessary, whether by a base hit or by a sacrifice, etc.).

So, a formula for WINNING offense might look something like this:

SCORE RUNS = Get On Base + Advance Runners + Drive In Runners

Those are the three biggest priorities... IF the offensive goal is to score runs and put your team in a position to win. More importantly, those are the three priorities each and every single one of your team members must strive for in their at-bats.

Do whatever it takes to get on base.

Do whatever it takes to advance a base runner closer to home plate.

Do whatever it takes to drive in a base runner to cross the plate.

That's it! Batting Average has nothing to do with that. Yes, some players who meet those goals will have high Batting Average. But there will be some who do not have high Batting Average and they are also meeting those goals. Even more tricky, and can be downright deceptive, is that some players will NOT be meeting those offensive goals but will still have high Batting Average.

So, what statistic is my favorite offensive measurement for real productivity? It is OPS (On Base Percentage Plus Slugging Percentage). It has actually been quite easy for me to transition my thinking in this direction, because OPS simply measures two of the most important things in the formula for creating winning offense, which are the two most useful skills of any hitter: getting on base (whether by walk, HBP, singles, or any combination of those) and hitting for power (extra base hits).

When making out a lineup, I am looking for players who: [1] don't make outs often, and [2] have power potential (hit more than just singles). OPS is a measurement that will tell me precisely that and assure me that this is a player who is being productive for us offensively.

Another number that fits into this conversation is RBIs. I try to be careful with this one when determining a lineup, because this is one number that is in many ways out of a player's control. It is very "team dependent." After all, it is difficult to drive in runs unless teammates are getting on base in front of you. That's not something any player can control.

A similar argument can be made about R (Runs scored). Aside from hitting a home run, a player that gets on base is mostly dependent on his teammates to drive him in to score. However, one factor I like about this statistic is that there is some control a player has in the number of runs they score, and there is still a lot they can do themselves to increase this number. For example, getting on base frequently, stealing bases, reading dirt balls/wild pitches and advancing on them, taking extra bases on singles or doubles. Players who find ways to score more runs are great players that make it difficult for coaches to leave them out of the lineup.

Building a better TEAM OFFENSE culture begins with getting rid of the lure of the Batting Average. Yes, it will still be the stat that the news reporters include in their articles. Yes, it will still be the stat that is most often looked at when determining individual awards at the end of the season. But I guarantee you it will not be the stat that will help your team create the best offense it is capable of having. IF, of course, the goal is to score runs and win games.

Stop calculating Batting Average and instead, begin calculating and celebrating Quality At-Bat averages. Use a chart like the one posted here, and challenge your players to change the way they think about their offensive game. If baseball and softball are TEAM sports, then this is the best approach. Batting Average is an individual stat, used for individual accolades. At the end of the day, I want a team that is focused on the most important priorities when at the plate. There are so many more ways to be successful and productive and help your team win than by hitting a single. Yes, getting a base hit is one way to help your team, but it is just one of NINE ways to have a quality at-bat and help your team offensively.

Let's be sure to celebrate them all.